economics

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economics

Forecasting the Afterglow: Data‑Driven Signals Shaping Consumer Choices, Corporate Agility, and Policy Design in the Post‑2025 US Recession

Macro Signals and the Timing of the Next Downturn * Real-time payroll and credit-card velocity can precede GDP revisions by 1-2 quarters. * AI-enhanced social media sentiment detects downturns 3x faster than traditional surveys. * Comparative analysis shows 2008 and 2020 triggers differ from emerging 2024-25 patterns. In the first quarter of 2024,